Monday, May 11, 2015

3 Factors That Will Decide Cleveland Cavaliers' Series Against the Chicago Bulls



Following some late-game heroics by LeBron James, the Cleveland Cavaliers have evened their second-round series with the Chicago Bulls.

Standing at two games apiece, the Cavs and Bulls head back to Cleveland in what now becomes a best-of-three series. This Central Division rivalry is already shaping up to be one of the best matchups in the 2015 NBA postseason, fueled by star power, existing bad blood and two game-winning shots by James and Derrick Rose.

Unfortunately, injuries are also taking their toll. We knew Kevin Love (shoulder) would miss the remainder of the postseason, but now Kyrie Irving (foot), Iman Shumpert (groin) and Pau Gasol (hamstring) are hobbled as well. James rolled his ankle late in Game 4 but said he would be active for Game 5 in Cleveland.

If the Cavaliers hope to wrap up the series and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, the following three factors will have to go their way.

Rebounding Battle

Entering the series, it was natural to assume rebounding would be an area of concern without Love.

After all, the Bulls possess a terrific glass-cleaning trio with Gasol (11.8 boards per game), Joakim Noah(9.6) and Taj Gibson (6.4). Love was the Cavaliers' best rebounder this season, finishing 12th in the NBA with 9.7 a night. Cleveland would have to get significant help from Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov, James and others to make up for Love's absence.

What we've witnessed in the first four games should come as no surprise. The team that's won the rebounding battle has also won the gameevery single time.

Team Rebounding vs. Game Outcome Bulls: 42 Cavs: 45 Bulls: 54 Cavs: 44 Cavs: 39 Bulls: 37 Cavs: 39 Bulls: 40 Game Winner: Bulls Game Winner: Cavs Game Winner: Bulls Game Winner: Cavs

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James (11.3 rebounds per game in the series) and Thompson (10.0) have been fantastic, making up for Love down low.

Thompson came off the bench in Game 1 before starting the past three games at power forward.

"My role hasn't changed all season," Thompson told ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin. "Just come in and play hard. Go hard, rebound, defend, get extra possessions and just run the floor."

If the Cavaliers want to win Game 5 and beyond, they'll once again rely on Thompson to control the glass. While James has edged him in rebounding this series, one can't expect the natural small forward to continue his torrid pace.

At 6'9", Thompson doesn't have the size to match up with Gasol (7'0"), instead relying on his quickness and athleticism to gain position in the paint. Mozgov (7'1") is a load to handle for anyone wearing red and black and moves well for someone his size.

The trio of Thompson, Mozgov and James must be better than Gasol, Noah and Gibson for the Cavaliers to come out on top.

Kyrie's Foot

After enjoying the healthiest season of his four-year career, Irving has been noticeably limited in the past few games.

Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal provides further detail:

Irving injured the foot in Game 2 of the series against the Boston Celtics, but kept it quiet. He shot just 3-of-11 in Game 3 against the Celtics and acknowledged after the game he had no acceleration, but didnt mention the injury.

The week off between series seemed to help, but Irving stepped on another players foot early Friday and rolled his right ankle, which also exacerbated the foot problem. The Cavs denied during the game there was anything wrong with Irvings ankle, then after the game acknowledged he had imaging done on his foot within the past week. He was diagnosed with a strained foot.

After scoring a combined 51 points in the first two games against Chicago, Irving has looked worse and worse. He finished Game 3 with 11 points on 3-of-13 shooting before dropping a measly 12 on 2-of-10 in Game 4.

Irving's explosiveness has been nonexistent, and the 23-year-old All-Star has struggled to get much lift on his jumpers, too.

The Cavaliers are already without their third-leading scorer (Love) and now face the possibility of playing the rest of the postseason with a watered-down second-best offensive threat. As good as James can be, he can't carry the Cavsoffensive attack by himself.

Irving, when healthy, is arguably the Cavaliers' best one-on-one offensive player. He's a far better shooter than James, and, while not as big and strong, is crafty enough to finish in traffic around the rim.

How important is a healthy Irving to winning the series? In the regular season, Cleveland scored a whopping 10.3 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.

Unfortunately, it's gotten so bad now for Irving that he's actually asked teammates if they want him out there, given his current state.

James offered his response to Chris Fedor of the Northeast Ohio Media Group:

The kid is a warrior with what he's going through. No one can relate. He's playing 40 minutes on one foot. His presence on the floor, no matter if he's playing on one foot or not, you have to account for him because of his ability to make shots and commanding things on the floor. That goes a long way. It's not just about basketball what this kid is doing for our team right now. He's giving us everything that he's got, and that's all we can ask for.

If Irving can make it back to 80 or 90 percent of his regular-season self, the Cavaliers will advance.

If he remains the same pedestrian, decoy guard we've seen in the past two games, Cleveland will struggle to crack 100 points again.

Containing Derrick Rose

Forget the "Rose can't play on one day of rest" rumor. The 26-year-old former MVP has looked just fine in the past two contests.

After registering 14 points on 6-of-20 shooting from the field in a Game 2 loss, Rose has averaged 30.5 points while also knocking down the game-winning three-pointer in Game 3. He's looked explosive once again, even after so many past knee injuries.

Obviously, a healthy and productive Rose means the world to Chicago. He averaged 18.8 points in wins this season and just 15.7 in losses.

During the playoffs, however, Rose is on a completely new level.

The Bulls are an astounding 25.0 points per 100 possessions better with Rose in the game. He's been not only their leading scorer in the series but also an active and willing defender.

Tom Ley of Deadspinnoted the difference in Rose's play:

Its not even so much the numbers from these games that are encouraging, but the style with which Rose has been playing. The tentative version of Derrick Rose that weve grown so accustomed to watching over the last few seasons seems to have been put back in the garage, and hes been replaced by the springy, attacking Derrick Rose of old.

The Cavaliers initially used Irving to guard Rose, but given the former's foot injury, this isn't an option anymore.

Cleveland's best bet is continuing to start Shumpert at shooting guard and forcing him to guard Rose on defense. Shumpert has been the Cavaliers' best perimeter defender all season, and he is holding opponents to 29.4 percent shooting from deep during the playoffs.

What's the most important factor for the Cavaliers?

J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova are plans B and C, with Irving being used as an emergency option only at this point.

The key word here is containment. Shumpert needs to keep Rose in front of him, forcing jumpers and three-pointers. It's also a good idea to keep Mozgov in the game with Rose, as the Russian center is Cleveland's best rim protector by far. Between Shumpert and Mozgov, the Cavs have a good defensive combo to help limit Rose's impact on the offensive end.

While Jimmy Butler and Gasol (when healthy) can carry a team for stretches, the Bulls ultimately depend on Rose for their success.

The Cavaliers have to improve their defensive assignments on Rose if they hope to make it past Chicago.

Greg Swartz has covered the Cleveland Cavaliers and NBA for Bleacher Report since 2010. All stats provided by Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2460313-3-factors-that-will-decide-cleveland-cavaliers-series-against-the-chicago-bulls



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