Puzzling over the Oscar nominations

Sometime late last year, I wrote in this blog that the one sure thing in this year's Oscars was that "The Lego Movie" would win for best animated film. After all, the movie had terrific reviews and huge box office.

"The Lego Movie" ran into a bit of bump last week on the road to Oscar glory: It didn't even get nominated, in the most inexplicable of this year's Oscar snubs.

The loss of the sure thing opens up the field for best animated film, and the early edge now would seem to go to "How to Train Your Dragon 2," although we'll be rooting for a long shot, the Oregon-made "The Boxtrolls."

Almost as baffling as the "Lego" snub is the omission of David Oyelowo, whose commanding performance as Martin Luther King Jr. in "Selma" elevated that film. The uproar over the fact that "Selma" earned just two nominations might actually give it a boost in the best picture race, just as Ben Affleck's omission for "Argo" allowed that film to peak at just the right time two years ago. "Boyhood" and its director, Richard Linklater, still seem to be the front-runners.

At this point, the best actor race appears to be a two-man affair, between Michael Keaton in "Birdman" and Eddie Redmayne in "The Theory of Everything."

(By the way, where is the public uproar over how "The Theory of Everything" reshuffles its source material, Jane Hawking's memoir, for dramatic effect?)

The other acting races still seem to be playing to form: Julianne Moore has the best actress edge for "Still Alice," and J.K. Simmons ("Whiplash") and Patricia Arquette ("Boyhood") are the front-runners in the supporting races.

The adapted screenplay race seems to be a toss-up, and the original screenplay race could be an early sign of which film will dominate the night: "Birdman" or "Boyhood." I was surprised, by the way, at the omission of Nick Hornby for "Wild" in the adapted category. Hornby's screenplay of the Cheryl Strayed memoir was elegant and polished. (It also strikes me that "Wild," which uses sound very effectively, was robbed in the two sound categories -- maybe the movie was just too quiet.)

We'll see how the other races play out in the weeks before the Feb. 22 Academy Awards ceremony, and I'll offer predictions that may (or may not) prove useful in your Oscar pool.

Source: http://democratherald.com/blogs/mike-mcinally/puzzling-over-the-oscar-nominations/article_c87d4a0c-9ede-11e4-8911-9b924a68e38d.html