Tuesday, December 23, 2014

NFL Week 17 Picks: Predicting the Winner of All 16 Matchups



Most of the league's playoff spots have already been clinched heading into Week 17; however, there's still plenty of room to maneuver within the postseason picture for both AFC and NFC contenders.

The Green Bay Packers are a perfect example of a team that could either finish as the No. 1 or No. 6 seed. If Aaron Rodgers and Co. defeat the Detroit Lions and the Seattle Seahawks fall to the St. Louis Rams, the Packers would earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If Green Bay loses and the Arizona Cardinals defeat the San Francisco 49ers, the Packers fall to the No. 6 seed.

How's that for some late-season drama?

Speculation is certainly in order as we wait for the season's final week to commence. With the playoffs on the line for many NFL teams, here's a look at the early odds for all 16 forthcoming Week 17 games and a pick against the spread for each.

Week 17 Picks Against the Spread San Diego at Kansas City KC -2.5 Chargers The Chiefs don't have a good enough offense to pull out a win here. Jacksonville at Houston HOU -10 Jaguars It's tough to see Case Keenum winning by 10, even against the Jaguars. Philadelphia at NY Giants NYG -2.5 Eagles New York's secondary is one of the few Mark Sanchez can beat. Buffalo at New England NE -10.5 Patriots After Week 16, faith in Buffalo's defense is at an all-time low. Dallas at Washington DAL -7 Cowboys Dallas has too many weapons for a porous Washington defense. Cleveland at Baltimore BAL -8.5 Ravens If Johnny Manziel starts, Cleveland will lose big once again. Chicago at Minnesota MIN -7 Bears Jay Cutler will be extra cautious since he may be auditioning for a new team. Indianapolis at Tennessee IND -7 Colts Tennessee couldn't stay within seven of the Colts reserves. Carolina at Atlanta ATL -3.5 Falcons See analysis below. NY Jets at Miami MIA -4.5 Jets The Jets are playing well of late, especially in division games. New Orleans at Tampa Bay NO -3.5 Saints The Saints will be looking to make a statement in Week 17. Oakland at Denver off Broncos Don't expect another win for the Raiders this season. St. Louis at Seattle SEA -14 Rams St. Louis has the tools to stay within 14 points of Seattle. Arizona at San Francisco SF -4.5 49ers Arizona's quarterback situation won't produce any more wins. Detroit at Green Bay GB -7 Packers See analysis below. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh PITT -3 Bengals Cincinnati's ground game will control the clock and keep this one close.

Sean O'Donnell's picks

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of December 22.

Division-Clinching Game to Bet

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

The Panthers enter Week 17 with the division lead at 6-8-1, but the 6-9 Falcons can take the NFC South with a home victory. This contest will decide which team will earn the final available NFC playoff spot.

Here's a look at the current state of the division, viaSportsCenter:

Atlanta is coming off a very impressive 30-14 victory over the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons would have been eliminated from playoff contention with a loss in that game, and they stepped up in a big way in all phases of the game.

Offensively, the line continues to play very well. It didn't allow a single sack on quarterback Matt Ryan, who completed 30 of his 40 passing attempts for 322 yards and a touchdown due to minimal pressure applied by the Saints pass rush.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Falcons got some great pressure on Drew Brees, sacking him five times and picking him off twice. Even the surging Mark Ingram was limited to a mere 2.9 yards per carry. This was arguably the best this defense has played all season.

The Panthers notched a 17-13 victory against the Cleveland Browns Sunday due to a very solid defensive performance. Carolina only allowed eight first downs and 228 total yards to a Browns offense that couldn't seem to get out of its own way.

Jonathan Stewart continues to run very well for the Panthers. He racked up 122 yards on 24 carries and came away with a short touchdown reception in Week 16. Although, the passing game didn't show the same kind of dominance.

Cam Newton completed 18 of his 31 passing attempts for 201 yards, one touchdown and one interception for a passer rating of 74.8. Those aren't horrible numbers, but they were against a Cleveland team that struggled to generate a pass rush and was without its best cornerback, Joe Haden.

The weakness in Carolina's passing game will be the difference-maker in this NFC South showdown. Atlanta is firing on all cylinders at the right time, and if its defense can keep up the same intensity it showed in Week 16, Newton is due for another down performance.

Prediction: Falcons 27, Panthers 20

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7)

We already discussed the Packers' playoff scenarios in Week 17, but the Lions have a few of their own. With a win, Detroit clinches the NFC North and also a first-round bye. However, if that is coupled with losses by Seattle and the Arizona Cardinals, the Lions would also claim home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. A loss to the Packers would send Detroit down to the NFC's No. 6 seed.

ESPN Stats & Info tweeted the last time Detroit emerged victorious in Green Bay:

The Lions continue their stout defensive ways, ranked first against the run and third in total defense. However, they've been slipping against the pass of late and now rank 12th in that category.

Chicago Bears' backup quarterback Jimmy Clausen completed 23 of his 39 passing attempts for 181 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while working with a depleted receiver corps. That's not bad for a signal-caller making his first start since 2010.

Still, Detroit managed to win the game 20-14, but the victory wasn't convincing. Quarterback Matthew Stafford was picked twice by a Bears secondary that had looked hapless in recent weeks. That's not a good sign heading into a game against a Packers defense that ranks 10th against the pass.

Green Bay was able to right the ship against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 16, earning a 20-3 victory. The Packers tallied 431 yards of offense but struggled getting the ball into the end zone, which is concerning considering their impending matchup. Still, Rodgers threw for 318 yards and running back Eddie Lacy rushed for 99 on a well-rounded offense.

That was another road game for the Packers, and a refresher regarding the difference of Rodgers' play at Lambeau Field seems to be in order:

Aaron Rodgers' Season Splits: Home vs. Away Home 7 66.1 2,108 23 0 132.6 Away 8 64.3 2,047 13 5 94.2

ESPN.com

Rodgers did tweak his calf in his Week 16 contest, but according to ESPNWisconsin.com, he'll be just fine for Week 17 against Detroit.

Green Bay's defense was extremely impressive against Tampa Bay on Sunday, allowing a total of just 109 yards while picking off quarterback Josh McCown once, sacking him seven times and holding the Buccaneers' running game to just 1.1 yards per carry.

At this point, Green Bay appears to be the team that's playing better on both sides of the ball, and the fact it has home-field advantage in this pivotal contest is just the icing on the cake.

Prediction: Packers 27, Lions 17

All playoff scenarios courtesy of CBSSports.com.

Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2308085-nfl-week-17-picks-predicting-the-winner-of-all-16-matchups



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