Things are starting to get interesting.
On the football field, disappointing showings by the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals have NFL experts rethinking their opinions of the leagues near-elite. In the picking booth, the same is happening to NESN.coms pacesetter.
After blitzing through the first fiveweeks, NESN.coms Ben Watanabe hit his first speed bump in Week 6. A poor week by our leader allowed the other competitors to gain ground for the first time this season, and suddenly were just one slip-up away from having a new No. 1.
Heres how things stack up heading into Week 7:Ben Watanabe: 51-38-2 (Last week: 5-9). Bet on dead-armed Peyton Manning and wild-armed Jay Cutler in the same week. Bad move.Mike Cole: 47-42-2 (Last week: 6-8). Biding his time for a big strike?Ricky Doyle: 47-42-2 (Last week: 7-7). Pulls into a tie for second with a rousing .500 showing last week.
THURSDAY, OCT. 22(-6.5) Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-4), 8:25 p.m. ET Ricky: Seahawks.Seattles in some trouble. That said, the Seahawks schedule hasnt been easy. And while Id side with most other teams in this situation, the 49ers third-worst offense, second-worst defense dont give me much to hang my hat on despite being home and coming off a win. Ben: Seahawks. Thefour teams Seattle has lost to have a combined record of 19-3. The Hawks have also beaten the spread eight times in their last 10 matchups with the Niners. Go 12s.Mike: Seahawks.To add to what Ben mentioned, the Seahawks are actually outscoring opponents by nine points this season, and two of their three road losses have been in overtime, with all three losses coming to teams better than San Fran.
SUNDAY, OCT. 25(-7) Buffalo Bills (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5), 9:30 a.m. Ricky: Bills.A sleep specialist predicted the Jaguars will lose pretty badly after looking at the teams London travel plans. You know who else will lose pretty badly? Anyone who sets their alarm for this game. Recharge your batteries instead. Ben: Bills. Buffalo has its own list of issues, most notably but not limited to its quarterback situation, but few problems in this world reach the heights of Jacksonvilles eternal struggle against the point spread.Mike: Bills.This games in London, so its basically a crapshoot, but the Bills have covered in four of their last five games against the Jags, who objectively speaking stink.
(-2.5) Minnesota Vikings (3-2) at Detroit Lions (1-5), 1 p.m. Ricky: Vikings.It was nice of the Lions to show up last week against the Bears. Now that they got their win out of the system, its time to return to their losing ways. Ben: Vikings. Detroit defied Las Vegas last week by beating the Bears. Hooray! The only thing is, thats the only time in their last six games the Lions beat the spread, and sources out of the Twin Cities tell us the Vikes are honing their Golden Tate Non-Catch Defense just for this matchup.Mike: Vikings.If youve been betting on the Vikings recently, youve made a lot of money. Theyre 9-2 ATS in their last 11 and 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
New Orleans Saints (2-4) at (-4.5) Indianapolis Colts (3-3), 1 p.m. Ricky: Colts.Id make a joke about the Colts sillyfake punt attempt against the Patriots. But the fact is: itd probably work against the Saints defense. Ben: Saints. New Orleans is suddenly, strangely effective against the spread, going 3-1 in its last four games in that regard. Its tough to overlook the Colts 11-4-1 ATS record in their last 16 home games, though.Mike: Colts.I hate this game not only because of the spread, but it also feels like this has letdown game written all over it for the Colts after putting so much into the Patriots game last week. Still, the Saints are giving up 32 points per game on the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5), 1 p.m. Ricky: Steelers.Pittsburgh ranks fifth in the NFL with just 18 points allowed per game, and Kansas City is coming off a 10-point output on the heels of Jamaal Charles season-ending injury. Plus, the Chiefs are 0-5 straight-up and against the spread in their last five games. Ben: Steelers. Is it me, or is Landry Jones not terrible? Or does he just appear better because he was preceded at quarterback by Mike Vick? Mike: Steelers.Was gonna mention that the Chiefs might have a shot since this games in Kansas City, and then I remembered they lost to Chicago at home.
Houston Texans (2-4) at (-4) Miami Dolphins (2-3), 1 p.m. Ricky: Dolphins.I said last week the Dolphins would enjoy a nice two-game stretch before getting destroyed by the Patriots in Week 8. Im not in the mood to backtrack. Ben: Texans. Traditionally, Texas has owned this matchup, winning the last seven showdowns and beating the spread five times. The Fins are flying high, but the boost of adrenaline a new head coach brings only lasts so long.Mike: Dolphins.Miami committed to the run game last week and was rewarded. Should be the same thing this week against a Houston team thats allowing 128.5 rushing yards in its four losses.
New York Jets (4-1) at (-10) New England Patriots (5-0), 1 p.m. Ricky: Jets.The Jets defense is one of maybe two units in the NFL the other being the Broncos D that could slow the Patriots high-powered offense. The Pats will win. Just not by 10 points. Ben: Jets. This defense is for real, and the Pats injuries on defense and along their offensive line makes this the worst possible time for New England to run into its most bitter rival.Mike: Jets.The Patriots have been favored at home by at least 10 points against the Jets five times since the 2006 season. Theyve covered once.
Cleveland Browns (2-4) at (-7) St. Louis Rams (2-3), 1 p.m. Ricky: Browns.Todd Gurleys a beast. And that scares me in this game. But I have a hard time picking the Rams, whose two wins have been by a combined five points, to cover by anything more than a field goal. Each of the Browns last three losses have been by exactly three points. Ben: Browns.I was all-in on the Rams when they opened at minus-4 1/2, but banking on them being a touchdown better than anybody with a Nick Foles-led offense is too rich for my blood. This one should be closer to a field goal.Mike: Rams.The Rams are coming off the bye and Todd Gurley gets a chance to go up against the NFLs worst rushing defense. So, yeah.
(-4) Atlanta Falcons (5-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-4), 1 p.m. Ricky: Falcons.This spread seems like an overreaction to Atlantas loss last week in New Orleans. Those Thursday night games always are fluky, though. Falcons by a touchdown on the Lords Day. Ben: Falcons. The Dirty Birds are on a two-game ATS losing streak, and its hard to be bullish on a team that just lost to the Saints. Regardless, were instituting a new rule against picking teams that were just embarrassed by the Dolphins and have beat-up quarterbacks.Mike: Falcons.Theres rain in the forecast for Sunday in Nashville, which might turns this into a ground game. Advantage: Falcons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at (-3) Washington Redskins (2-4), 1 p.m. Ricky: Redskins.The Bucs rank fifth in the NFL in yards allowed per game (322.8) and 31st in points allowed per game (29.6), so even they cant make up their minds. For a game in which my interest couldnt be lower, Ill side with the home team, which should run the ball in its own barn against Tampa Bays mysterious D. Ben: Redskins. All the numbers point to the Bucs here, which is why its amazingly dumb of me to side with the Skins. But Temple alum Terrance Knighton will celebrate his Owls first top-25 ranking in 36 years by bottling up Doug Martin and the rest will be academic.Mike: Buccaneers.The Redskins have allowed 397 total rushing yards intheir last two games; Doug Martin has rushed for 229 yards in his last two games.
Oakland Raiders (2-3) at (-4) San Diego Chargers (2-4), 4:05 p.m. Ricky: Chargers.Philip Rivers arm might fall off by Week 10. Fortunately, the Chargers have a bye that week, so theyll sew it back on in time for San Diegos Week 11 game against K.C. Ben: Raiders. The Chargers dont cover at home. We repeat: The Chargers dont cover at home. Theyre 0-2 ATS this season and 1-7 ATS in their last eight at Qualcomm. The Raiders are also 7-3 ATS in the last 10 matchups between these division rivals. Just win, baby.Mike: Chargers.The Chargers need a season-saving run. The good news? Their next five opponents enter this week with a combined7-22 record, including this week against a Raiders defense thats allowing 300 passing yards per game.
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at (-3) New York Giants (3-3), 4:25 p.m. Ricky: Giants.Matt Cassel under center and Christine Michael potentially leading the backfield? Thats enough to make even the biggest Dallas optimist dry heave. Ben: Giants.Mondays stink lingers, but Im still taking the G-Men, because East Rutherford, N.J., is a comfortable enough distance up I-95 fromSouth Philly. Plus,the Cowboys have dropped three straight against the spread. Mike: Giants.The Cowboys are 1-4 in their last five games coming off a bye. How is that even possible?
Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) at (-3) Carolina Panthers (5-0), 8:30 p.m. Ricky: Panthers.Carolina isgetting no love this season. So until that changes, Im rolling with the Panthers, whose defense is good enough to cause problems for the Eagles sporadic offense. Ben: Panthers.These field-goal-at-home spreads for Carolina need to stop. The Panthers are 3-0 ATS this season when the spread is a three pointsor less. Its just too d**n easy. Mike: Panthers.The surprisingly upstart Eagles defense matches up well here, but I just cant take Sam Bradford on the road.
MONDAY, OCT. 26Baltimore Ravens (1-5) at (-9) Arizona Cardinals (4-2), 8:30 p.m. Ricky: Cardinals.Bad news for the Cardinals: Theyve lost two of their last three games after establishing themselves as NFC powerhouses over the first three weeks. Good news for the Cardinals: They beat up on bad teams and ones coming to town Monday night. Ben: Cardinals. Death, taxes and Arizona beating the spread seemed like to only certainties in life in September. Then they dropped two out of three ATS this month, which would give us pause if they werent hosting the hapless Blackbirds. Mike: Cardinals.The Ravens havent covered since Week 1 and face a tough matchup against a Cardinals team looking to bounce back and build on an 8-2 ATS stretch at home.
Thumbnail photo viaJeremy Brevard/USA TODAY Sports Images
Source: http://nesn.com/2015/10/nfl-picks-week-7-greg-olsen-undefeated-panthers-welcome-eagles/
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